[20180506] 70% 法則

How to Stop Procrastinating Using the 70% Rule

By Taylor Pearson @Medium

(警告: 這類”雞湯類”文章有可能存在倖存者偏差,以及小樣本偏差或更廣泛的取樣偏差,所以請謹慎斟酌裡面的建議是否適合自己。)

Taylor Pearson 以自身經驗、傳統諺語、以及成功人士的語錄來向讀者解釋他認為面對不確定性的正確策略,這個策略鼓勵我們在已取得部分資訊的情況下更積極的承擔風險,理想上是在獲得 70% 可去的的資訊時就該下手。過多會浪費寶貴時間、過少會做錯誤決定。

(Credit: 本文來自 湾区日报的介绍)

Amazon 創始人 Bezos 認為是 70% 的資訊就足夠。 前美國國務卿 Colin Powell 認為是 40 – 70%。

“Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.” – Bezos

作者指出怕丟臉是猶豫不決的最常見原因 (編者按: 其實這是大部分 “好學生” 的通病):

The most common reason you procrastinate, the reason I procrastinated, is that you want to avoid looking bad.

盡早開始并累計 “動能” 非常重要:

The 70% Rule works for big goals as well as small goals because it gives you the momentum for getting started. As soon as you start a new project, the momentum gathers, and good things start to happen.

其實成功與否並不是重點,而是你自己付出努力試圖掌握自己人生的這個行為,對心理健康有很大的正面影響:

…The most important part about the 70% rule is not about what you do. It’s not about whether you succeed or fail.

It’s about what you become in the process. By taking on a challenge that you are not sure you can complete, you stretch yourself. You grow. You become more fully you.

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