[20181125] 中國經濟進入了撞牆期?

Is China Hitting A Wall?

by Christopher Burnham @Forbes

中國政府上個月宣布了一個減稅政策,其規模可能是美國川普版本的五倍。官方宣傳機構新華社寫道,這次的的減稅規模將至少到達中國 GDP 的 1%,讓川普的 0.2% 相形見絀。

作者認爲如此大規模減稅背後其實代表的是中國經濟的嚴重減速、甚至衰退,否則中國沒有必要執行如此激進的財政政策。我們知道 GDP 、消費、存款率都可以造假,但貨幣供給不行:

However, as others have pointed out, while you can fake GDP, consumption, savings rates, and productivity numbers, it is difficult to fake money supply. Printing money is, of course, a tried and true last gasp method of trying to resuscitate a failing economy.

對於中國經濟最好的資訊來源是對沖基金和爲其服務的研究機構,粉飾數據對他們沒有任何好處,他們是依賴資訊的準確性和速度來賺錢。

The best information comes from hedge funds and those who do research for the hedge fund community. That is because the most powerful force in the world is a buy signal or a sell signal. This is the true alchemy. The trader who has better and faster information, wins.

作者引用研究報告指出,2009年至今,歐美國家大規模實施量化寬鬆,但中國銀行系統所創造的廣義貨幣是 21 兆 ($21 trillion) 美元,遠超過歐洲、美國、日本加起來的 10.5 兆。 中國今年前所未有的新購買力主要就是來自中國商業銀行大量擴張的資產負債表。

“(the) Chinese banking system has created RMB 140 trillion of broad money/deposits since January 2009. This is equivalent to US$21 trillion at today’s exchange rate. This is twice as much as aggregate broad money – equivalent to $10.5 trillion – generated by commercial and central banks in the U.S., the euro area and Japan combined since early 2009 – even amid their respective QE programs…The unprecedented new purchasing power of Chinese companies and households has been primarily due to this enormous balance sheet expansion by mainland commercial banks.”

這種財務槓杆造成了經濟發展不平衡、產能過度、甚至市場泡沫的嚴重風險:

As such, the boom in money and credit growth has produced large imbalances and excesses, if not outright bubbles.”

中國中央銀行 (人民銀行) 知道這些風險,也在努力去槓杆化,但成效有限。 作者認爲中國國家領導人必須盡快想辦法和其他先進國家和解,以求緩解內部經濟危機:

The solution to the burgeoning economic crisis in China’s is simple—a fair trade deal with the U.S. and a fully verifiable denuclearized North Korea. Simple.

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