[20181202] 美國與中國之間沒有妥協的空間

There Is No Grand Bargain With China

by Ely Ratner @Foreign Affairs

(本文原發表於 2018 G20 峯會前夕)

本文作者 Ely Ratner 認爲我們不該對 G20 上任何可能的中美協議保持太大希望,它們至多是暫時的休戰協議,並無法改變長期來看中美兩國地緣政治競爭不斷白熱化的趨勢:

The days when the world’s two largest economies could meet each other halfway have gone.

Ratner 認爲川普可能會在會上和中國達成某種程度的妥協、並宣布勝利。(編按: 在這方面 Ratner 看來預測對了,不過 Ratner 在文章內也預測此次會議很可能無法阻擋川普對中國加徵更多的關稅,兩者有點衝突)

… no one should be surprised if he chooses to make a deal, declare victory, and go home. By earning symbolic and politically salient concessions, Trump could minimize short-term risks to U.S. markets while claiming that he alone finally stood up to Beijing.

根本問題在於,在習近平第一個任期內,中國的政治和工業野心已經遠遠偏離了美國可以接受的道路,兩國的分歧短時間內已經難以化解,兩國領導人在 G20 上能起到的作用微乎其微。

At the same time, there are no serious prospects for Washington and Beijing to resolve other important areas of dispute, including the South China Sea, human rights, and the larger contest over the norms, rules, and institutions that govern relations in Asia. Nothing Trump and Xi agree to in Argentina will substantially alter this course.

目前看起來習近平完全搞砸了中美關係,其中的復雜原因得留待歷史學家去研究。但習近平剛上任的時候,其實他有非常好的機會可以和美國建立良好的雙邊合作基礎,歐巴馬政府對中國相對友好,一直試圖和中國方面以外交手段解決雙方的分歧,但習近平政府屢次關上談判大門,對目前貿易戰所打的經濟議題拖延不處理,在中國南海軍事化上面更是直接對美方說謊。

Yet, at nearly every turn, Xi rejected Obama’s overtures in areas of significant dispute. Instead of seeking to narrow differences, Xi accelerated China’s efforts to develop an illiberal sphere of influence in ways that increasingly undermined vital U.S. interests. While Washington negotiated in good faith, Beijing dragged its feet for years on a bilateral investment treaty that would have addressed many issues at the root of today’s trade war.

現在甚至一大部分的美國商業界都受夠了中國政府,樂見美國政府對中國實施報復措施。

作者認爲,現在美國可以做的是強化兩黨合作、在對中國政策上建立共識,對中國影響力擴張所造成的威脅有個更明確的論述,並且不斷加強美國和其盟友的競爭力。直到中國領導人意識到中國不再具備在地區制霸的能力的那天,和中國坐下來談判才有意義。

One day, it will be time to talk with Beijing about making a deal. But that day will only come once China’s momentum has stalled and Xi or one of his successors is no longer convinced that his country is on the path to regional dominance.

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